On September 26, 2013, with Dick's Sporting Goods (NYSE:DKS) stock at $53, I stated that the stock was 12-20% overpriced, discounting a 15% long-term EPS growth rate (see: Analysts Are Ignoring Future Pricing Problems at Dick's Sporting Goods). With the stock down 19% from its $53 price after the last quarter's EPS announcement, it seems my thinking was correct, and the stock is probably now efficiently priced.
You can be right on overvalued stocks for at least two different reasons: because you got the fundamentals right, or because the fundamentals you have not considered have had a disproportionate impact on
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